TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$188,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,664 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over47c175,087$81,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,538.1946949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under52c37,947$19,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,814.9911,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under54c25,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,5002,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under53c24,196$12,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,836.594,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under53c19,555$10,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,363.964,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under54c16,565$8,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,945.313,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Under53c15,647$8,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,292.9171650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under53c9,655$5,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,117.1592054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under54c4,332$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,318.846,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12027254.4%148 W · 124 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c3,523$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.3212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cec…d241backed Under53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008256.1%46 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under21c1,740$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.188,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under53c1,714$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.251,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under53c1,571$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.4491252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Under53c1,356$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.727351.3%140 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under54c1,200$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6488,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Under57c1,004$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.252,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Over43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57022350.7%113 W · 110 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under53c700.53$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.2861450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Under53c694$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.8271750.1%359 W · 358 L-1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under54c682$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.872,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under53c611$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.841,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under53c603.4$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.840341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under54c602$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.721,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Over46c600$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3249448.9%46 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+17.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under53c495$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.351,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Under56c399$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6479442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under53c392.7$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.153,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under53c384.91$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2044,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under53c324$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.092,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f2…ca6abacked Under63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under26c274$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.058,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15065248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Over42c238.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.452152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98bd…8a55backed Over57c237.14$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.979258.7%54 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84a2…e0b6backed Under53c210.75$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under25c196$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Under53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,16749%572 W · 595 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a1…ceb5backed Under53c184.42$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.742653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over47c165.19$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5519654.1%106 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under56c142.48$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2199447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under45c111.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3974657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over67c107.32$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.392,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Over47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5344949.2%221 W · 228 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5339440.9%161 W · 233 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Under53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5373849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under55c97.46$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.222,94447.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L+4.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5064452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Under53c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.445045.8%206 W · 244 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4461948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Over36c77.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.971442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+140.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed Under52c71.73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1634451.5%177 W · 167 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e0…3741backed Over47c70.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2116349.1%80 W · 83 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under44c66.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.15,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over48c59.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.871,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under53c53.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2327345.4%124 W · 149 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under53c51.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.262548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.52,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Under37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.535248%169 W · 183 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…84f7backed Over67c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.559047.8%43 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f8…7de3backed Over47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.538142%160 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under53c48.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.911,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Under52c47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5153950.6%273 W · 266 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Over48c47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5135849.4%177 W · 181 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2176…bc30backed Under53c44.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.843560%21 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under53c44.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5446952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Under39c43.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.941,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Under53c42.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.561,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under53c41.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0844553.5%238 W · 207 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b89…23fbbacked Under54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.68237.8%31 W · 51 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Under53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.277836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Over54c39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.121,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Under55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3152852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Under53c34.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4725448.4%123 W · 131 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over47c30.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.171,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f04…2392backed Under53c30.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0110557.1%60 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under55c25.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.74,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5b…2a5abacked Under53c24.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…359dbacked Over47c23.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.694452.3%23 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Under53c23.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6258054.5%316 W · 264 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a3…1c2dbacked Over65c23.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b5…a1f2backed Under54c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.427647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d10…b3d0backed Over67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65046%23 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Under53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.623750.6%120 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6844…d538backed Under53c19.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.112857%73 W · 55 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.