NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64d5050da93d2bcba4295639777f5a3d1febceb737426bd9ca49909d67349b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Under | 55c | 33,060$18,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,890.38 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 14,619$6,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,597.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 45c | 8,955$4,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,048.42 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 47c | 2,616$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.96 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 1,986$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.36 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…27e3backed Over | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 45c | 1,097$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.24 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Over | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 801.96$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 548.01$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 44c | 292$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 202$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 42c | 172$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 150.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 58c | 132.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 46c | 120.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 113.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Over | 46c | 95.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 63.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 45c | 62.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 44c | 45.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 44c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 56c | 28.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 55c | 23.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pelicans (-0.5)Grizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.