NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8576bbb6201b14268182f614ce4344db164204dc9be4fed722debe72b87ea9ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Pelicans, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Pelicans | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,000 | 431 | 48.7%210 W · 221 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Grizzlies | 50c | 45,999$23,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,999.5 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Pelicans | 45c | 15,366$6,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,451.41 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Grizzlies | 55c | 8,122$4,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,467 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…8c4dbacked Grizzlies | 64c | 5,137$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300.15 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 4,886$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.9 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Grizzlies | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7837…40f1backed Pelicans | 47c | 3,931$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.28 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Grizzlies | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.99 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans | 55c | 2,525$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.33 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Grizzlies | 49c | 2,252$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.65 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Pelicans | 51c | 2,157$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.91 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Grizzlies | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Grizzlies | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.99 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 37c | 1,881$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…e904backed Pelicans | 47c | 1,696$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Grizzlies | 45c | 1,587$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.06 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 46c | 1,319$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pelicans | 49c | 1,225$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.75 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a6abacked Grizzlies | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 52c | 849.58$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.58 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Grizzlies | 55c | 802.26$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.06 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies | 52c | 505.11$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.02 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Grizzlies | 51c | 496$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Grizzlies | 53c | 481$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.93 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Pelicans | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pelicans | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Pelicans | 45c | 323.64$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 47c | 299.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.58 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Pelicans | 49c | 285.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Grizzlies | 56c | 279.18$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 49c | 268.23$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pelicans | 46c | 250.77$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.77 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Grizzlies | 55c | 243.65$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Grizzlies | 55c | 240$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Grizzlies | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x922e…7d04backed Pelicans | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Grizzlies | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Pelicans | 47c | 184.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Pelicans | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Grizzlies | 56c | 159.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Pelicans | 46c | 144.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 128.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Grizzlies | 51c | 124$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Pelicans | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2068backed Pelicans | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 94.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Grizzlies | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Grizzlies | 55c | 56.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Pelicans | 45c | 56.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Pelicans | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Grizzlies | 56c | 52.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…16ecbacked Pelicans | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Grizzlies | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Pelicans | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Pelicans | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Pelicans | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 34.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pelicans | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Grizzlies | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Pelicans | 62c | 25.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Pelicans | 48c | 25.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Pelicans | 48c | 25.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…e480backed Pelicans | 47c | 21.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Pelicans | 56c | 18.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pelicans (-0.5)Grizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.