Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64e9c1371679bb0cb5e49fca73dac2b48def2a38a4089e4264be9fd91fa6320d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 24c | 1,500$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.99 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 1,110$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 1,085$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 66c | 894.53$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.28 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 39c | 839.98$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.48 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 34c | 661.05$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.01 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…5bfdbacked Yes | 21c | 639.34$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 604$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 23c | 515.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 29c | 513.03$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 480$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 16c | 469.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 9c | 444.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b2…6933backed Yes | 38c | 438.12$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 29c | 428.73$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 25c | 422$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…ffbebacked Yes | 19c | 387.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 26c | 385.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 32c | 379.93$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 29c | 339.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 329.83$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 72c | 294.9$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 290.28$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 288.8$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 282.68$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 276.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 270.89$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 16c | 255.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 243.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 241.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 233.82$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 69c | 222.91$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked No | 65c | 217.84$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 27c | 213.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 204.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 26c | 199.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 199.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 195.34$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 24c | 194$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 13c | 193.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 26c | 190.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 32c | 184.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 30c | 179.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 175.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 28c | 170.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 170.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 167.08$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 163.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 64c | 156.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 19c | 154.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 49c | 154.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 151.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 18c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 25c | 135.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 23c | 129.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 129.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 31c | 128.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 38c | 125.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 22c | 125.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 27c | 123.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 113.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 80c | 113.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…a5fdbacked Yes | 20c | 111.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 23c | 111.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 74c | 109.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 24c | 106.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 24c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 97.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 23c | 91.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 31c | 89.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0b5dbacked Yes | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 25c | 86.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 32c | 85.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 33c | 78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 74.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 24c | 73.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…cb63backed Yes | 20c | 69.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…8a75backed Yes | 37c | 68.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6a…a8d1backed Yes | 24c | 68.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 18c | 68.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2e…498dbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed Yes | 28c | 58.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 27c | 56.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…588dbacked Yes | 18c | 56.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 34c | 56.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 29c | 55.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 52.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 31c | 51.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 50.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.