TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,667
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,667 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0380…073dbacked No30c1,431$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.054,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes67c1,113$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.2955336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f29…475abacked Yes69c1,083$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.527233.3%24 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes63c911.77$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.1915433.8%52 W · 102 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefe3…3410backed No30c882.07$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6740%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No28c836.25$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.663,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…cc26backed Yes63c752.78$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.762729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc263…9325backed Yes78c644.24$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.241478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick61cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64ba…ad7abacked Yes77c601.46$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.11540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes68c594.94$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5647432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No31c534$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.794,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No29c480$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.865,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No25c478.81$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.975,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No30c466.29$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1776924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Yes77c415.42$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.764734%16 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No21c319.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9996313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes68c314.12$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8338655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No30c311.31$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.241,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No28c298.83$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.871,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No23c281.59$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.812,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes68c273.86$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.863743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No31c269.9$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7588650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes70c260.5$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7640226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c6…e320backed Yes67c256.29$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.472245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No27c255.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.35,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No29c245.13$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.813,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes58c238.49$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0437532.8%123 W · 252 L+36.4wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+109.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No26c237.47$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.781,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes63c225.17$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.582259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed Yes69c222.85$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8827851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a2c…2262backed Yes76c222.38$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.391758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No29c219.86$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.722,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c8…4ccabacked No7c214.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes68c209.99$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.714635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No27c205.68$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.842,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No29c195.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.353,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae60…9c28backed Yes66c190.04$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.875825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes66c188.23$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.748149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19ea…93a8backed Yes59c182.94$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.941723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-53.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No26c173.66$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.182,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No28c166.74$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.212,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes68c162.59$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.592347.8%11 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+44.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No26c152.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.152,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeda…3215backed No23c151.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No21c145.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No22c141.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.872,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No21c140.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.844,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5024…3007backed No36c134.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9126948.3%130 W · 139 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No19c133.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1120631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No27c132.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.122,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes69c131.12$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9468338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf23b…2a4dbacked Yes74c130$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No20c128$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.969153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed Yes79c127.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.325046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2516348.5%79 W · 84 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9541…33b5backed Yes79c122.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.316269.4%43 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes72c122.1$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5222746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b2…6933backed Yes80c119.54$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes67c117.95$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7123633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No24c117.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.852,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…5bfdbacked Yes74c117.22$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.48944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No27c116.03$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.368950.6%45 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No28c112.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3688…7fffbacked Yes79c110.23$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes80c108.59$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.956,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No29c107.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1927…92afbacked No25c103.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No25c101.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.212,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.511330.1%34 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8796…c321backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.981650%8 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4271031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446543.1%28 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb934…57ebbacked Yes75c92.7$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.327541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ae…d103backed Yes78c90.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.263461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No41c90$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.62,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x230d…c39bbacked Yes69c89.04$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.161338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+50.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No30c87.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.482,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes75c81.17$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.039,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x797b…464fbacked Yes75c77$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes75c76.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.111,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36e1…eb43backed Yes60c71.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5616552.1%86 W · 79 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x706c…189dbacked Yes66c71.19$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.353429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Yes72c69.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.773943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee5f…b448backed Yes73c68.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x936a…f6cebacked Yes57c65.3$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0811631%36 W · 80 L+0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c64.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes64c62.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.329921.2%21 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd82…e501backed No22c60.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed Yes78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.214054.3%76 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2e…498dbacked Yes75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf420…eab9backed Yes80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca43…fcabbacked No25c58.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3288…b8cebacked No27c55.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.977728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No31c54.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0490734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac2…058dbacked No26c51.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No23c51.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7912458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes68c51.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.23243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.