Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb561dca19e381e4f7b1310c7f6110834c27909f64001657274ac0ed7e474a709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 30c | 1,431$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 67c | 1,113$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.29 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 69c | 1,083$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.52 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 63c | 911.77$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.19 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe3…3410backed No | 30c | 882.07$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 28c | 836.25$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 63c | 752.78$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.76 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed Yes | 78c | 644.24$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.24 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…ad7abacked Yes | 77c | 601.46$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 68c | 594.94$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.56 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 534$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 480$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 478.81$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 30c | 466.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 77c | 415.42$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 21c | 319.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 68c | 314.12$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 311.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 28c | 298.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 23c | 281.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 68c | 273.86$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 31c | 269.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 70c | 260.5$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e320backed Yes | 67c | 256.29$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 255.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 29c | 245.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 58c | 238.49$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 237.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 63c | 225.17$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 69c | 222.85$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed Yes | 76c | 222.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 29c | 219.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 7c | 214.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 68c | 209.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 27c | 205.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 29c | 195.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 66c | 190.04$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 66c | 188.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 59c | 182.94$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 26c | 173.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 28c | 166.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 68c | 162.59$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 152.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…3215backed No | 23c | 151.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 145.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 22c | 141.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 140.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 36c | 134.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 19c | 133.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 27c | 132.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 69c | 131.12$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…2a4dbacked Yes | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 20c | 128$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 79c | 127.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 79c | 122.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 72c | 122.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b2…6933backed Yes | 80c | 119.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 67c | 117.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 117.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…5bfdbacked Yes | 74c | 117.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 27c | 116.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 28c | 112.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…7fffbacked Yes | 79c | 110.23$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 80c | 108.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 29c | 107.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…92afbacked No | 25c | 103.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 25c | 101.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 75c | 92.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed Yes | 78c | 90.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x230d…c39bbacked Yes | 69c | 89.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 87.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 81.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 75c | 77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 75c | 76.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed Yes | 60c | 71.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 66c | 71.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 72c | 69.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…b448backed Yes | 73c | 68.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 57c | 65.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 64.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 64c | 62.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd82…e501backed No | 22c | 60.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2e…498dbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf420…eab9backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…fcabbacked No | 25c | 58.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 27c | 55.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 31c | 54.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…058dbacked No | 26c | 51.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 23c | 51.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 68c | 51.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.