Champions League · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6613aa543ecad535765451390deef50e097f33805b03839eaf09560a05a5b6ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 14,160$3,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,392.2 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 10c | 8,943$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.3 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…fb3abacked Over | 65c | 6,014$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 4,360$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.15 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 38c | 3,820$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.47 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 24c | 3,680$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.42 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…28e6backed Over | 62c | 3,606$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…56cbbacked Over | 61c | 2,948$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Over | 62c | 2,792$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.85 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…4d2bbacked Under | 15c | 1,944$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 11c | 1,942$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 77c | 1,800$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 18c | 1,524$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.09 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Under | 16c | 1,425$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.02 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 13c | 1,148$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.95 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 1,065$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.91 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad7…f012backed Over | 65c | 838.65$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 19c | 578.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 79c | 479.58$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.62 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 11c | 444$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 38c | 414.02$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.81 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 11c | 410$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 34c | 323.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 76c | 289.65$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Over | 65c | 230$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked Under | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 64c | 187.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…beafbacked Over | 64c | 179.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…1128backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 66c | 151.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 64c | 145$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…0cc9backed Over | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cbf8backed Over | 72c | 122.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 25c | 110.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…fca8backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…f8e2backed Over | 63c | 98.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 20c | 94.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…98b6backed Over | 79c | 92.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over | 78c | 89.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 66c | 76.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Under | 30c | 57.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Under | 37c | 54.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked Under | 25c | 48.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Under | 37c | 41.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked Over | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…0aaebacked Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…205dbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…349cbacked Over | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 60c | 23.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…cb27backed Over | 64c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.