Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6723961855ae7197a65c8eecb4c89b969199a77db90a8b4c66b1de9346bd00ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 906.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 668.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 517.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 308.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…a796backed Yes | 36c | 295.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 4c | 292.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 21c | 240.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 217.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 199.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 34c | 183.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 150.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 128.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 108.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 35c | 106.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 26c | 102.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed No | 79c | 99.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 73c | 98.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 66c | 94.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 35c | 93.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 24c | 88.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 23c | 87.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 64c | 77.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 65c | 77.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 74.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 36c | 72.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 67.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 65.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 75c | 65.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 56.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 34c | 56.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 54.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…5898backed Yes | 28c | 53.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 68c | 52.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 50.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 35c | 48.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 37c | 46.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 28c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…8f12backed Yes | 24c | 43.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 68c | 42.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…d6bbbacked Yes | 28c | 41.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 70c | 41.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 33c | 41.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…6782backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 38.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked No | 75c | 37.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5594backed No | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 69c | 34.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…6a09backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 67c | 31.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…2ea6backed No | 72c | 29.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 29.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 70c | 25.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 70c | 24.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 67c | 24.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 69c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked No | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 63c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 78c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.