Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x750bd8bd136b9e9c8ba4a6d88e0bcfad2621ec1893412a135c37add1b3c4d4f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 33c | 1,879$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.73 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 38c | 1,744$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 2c | 1,413$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 44c | 569$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.23 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 58c | 525.19$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.43 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 33c | 442.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 8c | 430.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed Yes | 77c | 360.76$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 65c | 333.57$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.35 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 331.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 21c | 310.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.53 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 79c | 302.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 60c | 297.57$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 47c | 292.92$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 291.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 281.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 29c | 270.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 80c | 245.32$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 237.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 73c | 212.24$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 48c | 199.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 53c | 173.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 12c | 167.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.19 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 64c | 167.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 15c | 166.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 45c | 163.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb99…b393backed Yes | 78c | 161.52$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25e…5d00backed Yes | 27c | 154.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 57c | 154.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 68c | 150.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 49c | 133.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 53c | 129.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 129.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 121.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 39c | 118.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 60c | 116.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 58c | 115.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 113.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 17c | 113.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 51c | 110.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 43c | 108.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 79c | 105.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 45c | 105.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 104.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 103.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 61c | 103.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 18c | 102.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 27c | 98.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 33c | 97.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 61c | 96.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 17c | 95.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 21c | 92.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9656…9813backed Yes | 79c | 84.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 50c | 79.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 76.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 24c | 75.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 66c | 74.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 74.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 40c | 71.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 17c | 71.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 15c | 70.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 70c | 69.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed Yes | 38c | 68.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…960cbacked Yes | 79c | 68.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 53c | 65.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 70c | 64.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 46c | 64.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 78c | 62.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 78c | 62.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 72c | 61.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 62c | 61.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 49c | 61.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 46c | 57.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 31c | 57.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 51c | 57.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 19c | 53.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 53.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…fea8backed Yes | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 74c | 48.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 45c | 48.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 31c | 47.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 46.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…9ad0backed Yes | 75c | 46.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 78c | 45.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…24bebacked No | 30c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 74c | 44.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 68c | 42.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 48c | 38.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 48c | 38.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 76c | 38.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 30c | 36.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 75c | 34.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…42c3backed No | 72c | 33.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 48c | 33.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed No | 44c | 32.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.