Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x672d15fa60b2010b71d43fb3015551484782596fa6efaf83a358f954e560ac19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,969$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 2c | 1,418$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 1,033$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…7518backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 24c | 984.5$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 2c | 847.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 751$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 20c | 728.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 629.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 4c | 619.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 3c | 509.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 10c | 427$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 25c | 317$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 5c | 219.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 164$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 147.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 27c | 119.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 17c | 104.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 101.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 100.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…a3a5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 80c | 98.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 95.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 19c | 88.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 27c | 85.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 79c | 82.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 24c | 81.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 19c | 79.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 77.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 73.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 17c | 70.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 70.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…10e3backed Yes | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e0…c5aabacked Yes | 26c | 66.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1f…d278backed Yes | 19c | 56.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 76c | 52.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 80c | 51.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 22c | 51.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…d584backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 46.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 79c | 15.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.