Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9b90db425259c33c364c6eefcd6dd76e4fea803d1d1ee0872a3fd108e3a501b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 1,976$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.09 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 1,684$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 1,667$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 1,363$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 3c | 539.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 6c | 339.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 25c | 330.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 7c | 321.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 25c | 314.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 15c | 312.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 10c | 296.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 4c | 278.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 270$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 230.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 13c | 224.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 196.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 65c | 194.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 9c | 183.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…cfc2backed Yes | 36c | 167.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 10c | 145$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 39c | 142.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 123.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 119.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 103.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…a3a5backed Yes | 35c | 98.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 96.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 95.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 39c | 83.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed No | 65c | 81.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 17c | 77.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 35c | 60.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1f…d278backed Yes | 34c | 55.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 47.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 46.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 46.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 27c | 44.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 35c | 40.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…aa66backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 38c | 39.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 37.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 34c | 35.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 73c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 73c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 73c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 33.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…a0babacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1fb5backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…bd5abacked Yes | 36c | 28.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 58c | 26.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 25.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 23.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 67c | 19.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 67c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 68c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 66c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 67c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.