Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdce817f009be265a9a8d605fd5d5a41cf34f0226078a3f039d2d1ba3aeb5bf0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 72c | 2,480$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.21 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 1,898$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 28c | 1,252$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.54 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 1,162$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 14c | 1,065$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.38 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 54c | 898.23$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.3 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 893.2$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 12c | 755.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 666.67$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 659.84$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 589.5$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 48c | 521.05$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.1 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 21c | 454.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 442$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 9c | 430.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 63c | 381.25$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 354.88$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 340.92$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 62c | 335.14$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked Yes | 29c | 334.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.91 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 38c | 332.54$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.38 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 55c | 322.81$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 62c | 316.51$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.62 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 30c | 304.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.76 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 53c | 297.69$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 274.45$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 19c | 261$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.42 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 23c | 257.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 234$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 233.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 57c | 229.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 52c | 221.82$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 24c | 210.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.63 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 25c | 210$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.11 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 206.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.29 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…04bcbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 33c | 198.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.41 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 57c | 196.21$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 6c | 192.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 50c | 190.68$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 49c | 190.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 36c | 184.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 49c | 184$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked No | 8c | 183.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 14c | 179.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.81 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 12c | 175.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…82cbbacked No | 75c | 170$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 50c | 166$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 73c | 164.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 53c | 156.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 155$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a13…fb54backed No | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 36c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 147.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 72c | 142.65$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 43c | 139.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Yes | 52c | 135.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 10c | 133.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 133.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 128.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 64c | 124.23$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 24c | 120.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 50c | 116.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 24c | 114.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 110.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 25c | 110.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 50c | 109.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 47c | 108$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 52c | 105.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 24c | 103$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 66c | 100.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 44c | 96.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 35c | 95.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…33aebacked Yes | 41c | 91.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 36c | 89.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 78c | 87.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed Yes | 63c | 86.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 49c | 83.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 74c | 82.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 49c | 81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…d828backed No | 43c | 78.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes | 59c | 76.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 51c | 75.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 76c | 71.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed No | 75c | 71.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 46c | 71.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 55c | 70.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 50c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 36c | 68.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 47c | 68.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 43c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 34c | 62.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 51c | 61.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 45c | 61.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 43c | 61.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 50c | 60.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 60.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.