Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe92325a9f9f8bbb22c6a0c77bf282aaebde73ddc7111b1a615a0f1496ab8308b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 15c | 1,483$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.54 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 28c | 785.24$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.05 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 738.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 6c | 723.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 15c | 658.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 78c | 651.5$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.31 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 589.5$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 11c | 580.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 25c | 554.51$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 18c | 532.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 57c | 530.1$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.63 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 3c | 525$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 388.49$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 374.98$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 11c | 337.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 35c | 308$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.37 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 296.05$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 268.83$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 4c | 261.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 253.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 10c | 252.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 22c | 251.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 240.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…aaf7backed Yes | 29c | 238.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 217.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 215$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…3f8cbacked Yes | 31c | 210.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 209.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 206.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 203.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 202.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 75c | 195.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 16c | 179.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 176.46$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 13c | 173.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 32c | 168.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 49c | 164.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 27c | 164.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 16c | 163.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 64c | 161.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 142.69$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 23c | 141.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked Yes | 27c | 137.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 23c | 131.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 16c | 131$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 129.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 11c | 123.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 39c | 116$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 115$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 69c | 102.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 30c | 94.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 28c | 92.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 17c | 89.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 28c | 89.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 34c | 88.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 14c | 82.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 48c | 80.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 74.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…2762backed Yes | 21c | 68.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…7a2abacked Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 63.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 42c | 63.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 18c | 61.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e0…c5aabacked Yes | 38c | 59.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 56.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…0b45backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e6…babebacked Yes | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Yes | 44c | 45.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 31c | 43.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 35c | 43.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…6c3cbacked Yes | 28c | 42.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…7dafbacked No | 75c | 38.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 37c | 27.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 37c | 26.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe6…036dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 50c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 24.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed No | 63c | 23.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 76c | 22.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.