Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aaa082b7e057524b575dd0d431f15bb2d98df6c54e1ae86e4c9a6b7c84e5d21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,303$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 25c | 1,248$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.9 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 873.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 696.43$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 13c | 665.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 8c | 664.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 20c | 426.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 422.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 379.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 8c | 350.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 24c | 284.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 273.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 271.44$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 270$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 22c | 263.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 21c | 259.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 22c | 235.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 234.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 229.86$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 5c | 207.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 200.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 199.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 195.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 176.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…0b45backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 14c | 146.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 19c | 139.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 134.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 18c | 112.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 24c | 104.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 13c | 101.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 100.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 22c | 100.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 99.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…a3a5backed Yes | 25c | 96.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 12c | 91.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 23c | 90.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 77c | 82.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 16c | 81.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 23c | 77.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 17c | 75.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 72.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 17c | 72.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 71.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…03f8backed Yes | 21c | 71.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 78c | 65.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 26c | 63.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 79c | 62.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 58.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1f…d278backed Yes | 24c | 56.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked Yes | 22c | 51.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1fb5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c11…cfafbacked No | 79c | 48.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…9b38backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 46.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 23c | 44.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 23c | 44.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 44.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 75c | 42.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 26c | 41.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 40.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 80c | 38.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 74c | 34.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 73c | 34.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…c4febacked No | 79c | 33.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 76c | 32.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 27.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 27.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 24.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 75c | 23.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed No | 79c | 19.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 78c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 13.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…7dafbacked No | 78c | 13.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.