Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Jordan Thompson vs Adrian Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6765a29a5642d8812820f69148bf6f95ce22fd2abc82ea5f11c132b8792d7d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mannarinoof Thompson, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc04d…69e7backed Mannarino | 64c | 14,745$9,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,255.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Thompson | 42c | 14,497$6,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,022.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thompson | 36c | 7,526$2,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.47 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Thompson | 36c | 6,000$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Mannarino | 62c | 5,363$3,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Mannarino | 69c | 4,294$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.98 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Thompson | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Mannarino | 64c | 2,877$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.82 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Mannarino | 63c | 2,727$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.34 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Mannarino | 61c | 2,034$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.11 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Thompson | 36c | 1,937$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.62 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Mannarino | 54c | 1,352$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.83 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thompson | 35c | 1,273$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.54 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mannarino | 61c | 1,230$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.51 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Mannarino | 62c | 1,177$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.42 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Mannarino | 72c | 1,090$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.8 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Thompson | 34c | 950$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.9 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Mannarino | 61c | 820$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.8 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mannarino | 61c | 802.18$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.85 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Thompson | 55c | 743.73$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.45 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Thompson | 18c | 712.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mannarino | 69c | 679$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.15 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Thompson | 38c | 531.75$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.75 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Thompson | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Mannarino | 53c | 509.84$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.45 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Mannarino | 63c | 476.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Mannarino | 55c | 363.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mannarino | 61c | 329.72$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Thompson | 39c | 323.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Mannarino | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Thompson | 24c | 316.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked Thompson | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Thompson | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Mannarino | 77c | 261.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Mannarino | 65c | 260$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Thompson | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Thompson | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Thompson | 26c | 215.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Thompson | 38c | 215$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Thompson | 33c | 208.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Mannarino | 63c | 175$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Mannarino | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Mannarino | 65c | 144.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mannarino | 62c | 142.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mannarino | 62c | 115.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Thompson | 38c | 114.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Mannarino | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Mannarino | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Thompson | 36c | 65.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Thompson | 42c | 63.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Mannarino | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Thompson | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mannarino | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Thompson | 33c | 48.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…c2d3backed Thompson | 25c | 48.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Mannarino | 61c | 47.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Mannarino | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mannarino | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f1e4backed Mannarino | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.