TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group D

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
KOLESIEof KOLESIE, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked KOLESIE35c6,902$2,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,465.375,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed KOLESIE35c5,637$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,649.9884958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed KOLESIE36c4,926$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,141.792,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Virtus.pro64c3,115$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.13040%12 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4aee…c455backed KOLESIE67c2,972$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.19757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Virtus.pro64c2,961$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.0927940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Virtus.pro38c2,398$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.282740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Virtus.pro9c2,174$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.674,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed Virtus.pro47c2,151$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed KOLESIE62c2,097$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.778053.8%43 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9051…32d2backed Virtus.pro1c1,971$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7130859.1%182 W · 126 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Virtus.pro65c1,806$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1741,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Virtus.pro64c1,801$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.135257.7%30 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Virtus.pro62c1,726$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.1975652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked Virtus.pro62c1,620$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed KOLESIE38c1,524$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.9511633.6%39 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Virtus.pro7c1,442$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.897,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed Virtus.pro64c1,274$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.722044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Virtus.pro63c1,076$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.1836453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42dd…5d2bbacked Virtus.pro65c1,041$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.665442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked KOLESIE35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6503256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x633f…2104backed Virtus.pro64c940.63$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3355…dd2fbacked Virtus.pro64c890$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.61643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed Virtus.pro65c864.55$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.9615349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Virtus.pro27c853.26$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.731,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed KOLESIE37c849.96$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.9755941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed KOLESIE36c837.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.822,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb7e…9546backed KOLESIE57c815.05$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.374146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed KOLESIE37c812.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.7640449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x020c…6a33backed Virtus.pro65c752.54$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.15862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed KOLESIE36c750$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48010352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1661…4b37backed Virtus.pro7c671.43$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Virtus.pro64c669.82$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.531,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Virtus.pro65c641.73$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.1222342.2%94 W · 129 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Virtus.pro28c627$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.355,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Virtus.pro69c595.21$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.697250%36 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed KOLESIE71c562.07$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.864,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Virtus.pro12c560.07$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1762738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Virtus.pro49c556.97$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9880942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed KOLESIE38c530$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.65,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed KOLESIE36c500.1$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.0626650.8%135 W · 131 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Virtus.pro18c500.04$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.242,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2776…2886backed KOLESIE35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+132.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x173f…e44dbacked KOLESIE35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3251040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked KOLESIE61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19519229.2%56 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7542…defdbacked Virtus.pro64c494.65$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.581546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc48…24c3backed Virtus.pro65c471$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.093441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked Virtus.pro64c461.93$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.6434559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc376…6850backed Virtus.pro65c461.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Virtus.pro35c440.01$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.033,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed KOLESIE38c418.99$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.8228455.6%158 W · 126 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Virtus.pro50c410$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.538037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Virtus.pro62c404.26$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6448240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed KOLESIE72c400$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.84671.7%33 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed Virtus.pro64c386.45$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.338540%34 W · 51 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f18…c075backed Virtus.pro65c380$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2474045%18 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Virtus.pro20c377.9$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7478043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507c…6c0cbacked Virtus.pro65c356.16$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.174355.8%24 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Virtus.pro40c339.65$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.892,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked Virtus.pro58c319.97$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.5817142.1%72 W · 99 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Virtus.pro42c316.92$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4339038.5%150 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Virtus.pro39c311.78$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5916023.8%38 W · 122 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed Virtus.pro64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19230155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Virtus.pro69c300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6591945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked Virtus.pro62c297.24$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0812846.1%59 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c2…5b5fbacked KOLESIE35c272.53$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.14988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.41per pick48cpaid+135.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked KOLESIE48c268.63$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.515,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8edb…d34dbacked Virtus.pro67c267.16$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1795248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Virtus.pro57c261.13$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15054543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1052…441bbacked KOLESIE78c257.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.79567.4%64 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked Virtus.pro44c253.65$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2333060.9%201 W · 129 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e9…e343backed KOLESIE71c250.53$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.533354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed Virtus.pro63c250$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.527156.1%152 W · 119 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…e613backed KOLESIE74c249.52$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-46%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed Virtus.pro67c212.28$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2311349.6%56 W · 57 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Virtus.pro33c210$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.62,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcded…826bbacked Virtus.pro64c206.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-79.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Virtus.pro20c205$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.133,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Virtus.pro30c202.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3164046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed KOLESIE37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1262,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed KOLESIE36c200$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12965946.6%307 W · 352 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked KOLESIE65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed KOLESIE35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13017251.2%88 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Virtus.pro30c198.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.962,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2db…a60dbacked Virtus.pro63c194.31$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.421861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed KOLESIE38c193.94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.299148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0710…9335backed Virtus.pro16c189.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013127.5%36 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed KOLESIE50c176$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8837949.3%187 W · 192 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Virtus.pro30c170$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.652,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed KOLESIE37c167.91$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.9634750.7%176 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206c…2b8dbacked Virtus.pro64c167.55$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.236744.8%30 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked KOLESIE48c161.42$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.451,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe62c…d9a6backed Virtus.pro29c160.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7610151.5%52 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Virtus.pro64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004156.1%23 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Virtus.pro17c154.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4691743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf3f…1365backed KOLESIE49c152.39$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.395044%22 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed KOLESIE34c151.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3274054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked KOLESIE54c150.42$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.791,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed KOLESIE37c148.87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8750051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Virtus.pro13c148$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1926546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.