Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67ef97570b802ad0e3404b117447444f8ee62aa49847a44bcc252acd44bd3159
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 80c | 3,770$3,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 20c | 3,089$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.82 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 76c | 2,000$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.5 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 1,745$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.45 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 15c | 1,373$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.15 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Under | 17c | 823$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 19c | 516.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 72c | 508.3$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.32 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Under | 22c | 436.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 24c | 408.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…cea5backed Under | 21c | 382.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4926…10dcbacked Under | 27c | 305$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f38…c97cbacked Over | 73c | 305$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 21c | 296.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 75c | 266.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 18c | 250.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 76c | 210.49$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 19c | 183.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 17c | 158.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 79c | 157.82$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 18c | 151.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Under | 18c | 142.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 19c | 140.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Over | 79c | 129.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 15c | 124.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 20c | 124.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 80c | 124.15$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 73c | 117.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 76c | 110.27$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 21c | 95.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 21c | 51.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…2ed6backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 80c | 49.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…ddedbacked Over | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 75c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-2.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.