Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45ad49fd3dcaa25d70cbeffa71e0c57b13708fb6ab10b097ebc5cc2e4ba62d00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 8,154$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.56 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 4,024$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.8 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 14c | 1,750$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.5 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Under | 79c | 1,545$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…cea5backed Over | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 19c | 1,284$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.88 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 19c | 1,284$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.88 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 77c | 1,282$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.87 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 23c | 1,282$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.87 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Over | 19c | 1,103$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 21c | 939.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 19c | 828.53$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…4fa3backed Over | 9c | 629$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 23c | 623.41$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Over | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 19c | 499.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 19c | 470.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Over | 19c | 455.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 29c | 420.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Under | 72c | 417.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…604ebacked Over | 19c | 313.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed Over | 19c | 313.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 79c | 310$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed Over | 19c | 302.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Over | 19c | 295.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 77c | 289.57$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Under | 80c | 260$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 79c | 253.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 21c | 240.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Over | 19c | 228.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 19c | 200.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 16c | 196.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 16c | 190.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 80c | 189$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 24c | 183.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 22c | 177.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 19c | 144.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…a7fdbacked Over | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 80c | 116.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 19c | 101.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd2…38d1backed Over | 21c | 95.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec46…714cbacked Over | 20c | 72.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 19c | 69.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 20c | 67.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Over | 19c | 53.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Under | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Under | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…84ddbacked Under | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-2.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.