Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9443ba699dc83c9e7a4ce46892439f8727d022a98518501d31ff5e678f92d36b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Coast Mariners FCof Melbourne City FC, Central Coast Mariners FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Melbourne City FC | 53c | 393.29$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.52 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Melbourne City FC | 43c | 348$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 57c | 348$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Melbourne City FC | 46c | 320.32$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Melbourne City FC | 77c | 315$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.1 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Melbourne City FC | 44c | 257.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…3bccbacked Melbourne City FC | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Melbourne City FC | 30c | 210.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Melbourne City FC | 41c | 183$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 59c | 183$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Melbourne City FC | 44c | 97.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Melbourne City FC | 45c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Melbourne City FC | 54c | 75.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Melbourne City FC | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Melbourne City FC | 41c | 68.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…d76fbacked Melbourne City FC | 46c | 65.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 55c | 55.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd978…c469backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 57c | 55.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Melbourne City FC | 38c | 49.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Melbourne City FC | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 57c | 43.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 25c | 43.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 33c | 40.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Melbourne City FC | 45c | 37.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Melbourne City FC | 74c | 35.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 29c | 35.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Melbourne City FC | 52c | 31.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Melbourne City FC | 42c | 30.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec46…714cbacked Melbourne City FC | 43c | 25.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 61c | 25.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 47c | 24.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…d4fbbacked Melbourne City FC | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 43c | 23.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…1e21backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-2.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.