MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6831be189c1f74effc273f830f107e4d874d09b4262a092309ed7418627a37a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked New York Mets | 67c | 2,990$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.7 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed New York Mets | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 1,923$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.98 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 1,920$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.21 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…5ca8backed New York Mets | 40c | 1,339$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 1,181$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.73 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 769$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.77 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047f…bf3abacked New York Mets | 27c | 700$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 511.17$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.57 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets | 37c | 433.28$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.07 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 381.88$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.39 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed New York Mets | 29c | 376.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.6 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 342.56$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 318$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.16 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 299.91$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.95 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 271.67$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 224$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 221.88$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.89 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked New York Mets | 68c | 177$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Mets | 32c | 175$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.13 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 158$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 60c | 126.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 98.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed New York Mets | 28c | 80.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 74.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 73.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 71.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed New York Mets | 29c | 62.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 62.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed New York Mets | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed New York Mets | 64c | 59.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 32c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Mets | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 34.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…cef0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked New York Mets | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…a690backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 27.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 23.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked New York Mets | 68c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 21.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.