MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf397600bb14e4895d12e99538ba8281914b035cae14cc903c6243bf832bababb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 25c | 4,573$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 75c | 3,935$2,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.99 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…7b08backed Over | 30c | 2,667$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,533$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 30c | 914.23$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.22 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 29c | 862$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 30c | 517.25$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 75c | 498.91$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.73 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 29c | 428.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 68c | 307$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 182.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 29c | 166$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 62c | 154.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 38c | 122.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 30c | 117.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 62c | 97.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 29c | 97.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 31c | 86.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 75c | 78.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 31c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 72c | 73.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 29c | 69.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 24c | 68.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 31c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 54.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 71c | 45.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 39.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Over | 39c | 36.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Under | 76c | 28.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 62c | 20.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Under | 77c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.