Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $146?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x688dfa98c84a5bf318ccde8ed33247c828f1ea679dee097347a6eddb84f705bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 58c | 1,532$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.55 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 27c | 1,081$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.48 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 62c | 726.47$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.02 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 31c | 571.03$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.16 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 3c | 465.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 10c | 278.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed No | 67c | 232.49$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 232.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572b…a831backed Yes | 80c | 218.15$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 197.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…dbc1backed No | 67c | 175$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 20c | 160.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.53 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 66c | 160.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…1aa4backed Yes | 73c | 153.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 34c | 151.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 42c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 57c | 140.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 79c | 137.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.51 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 129.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0c…ced7backed No | 67c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 45c | 98.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…43adbacked Yes | 40c | 94.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed Yes | 78c | 72.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 41c | 70.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 80c | 67.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…eda6backed No | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 55c | 66.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 35c | 65.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 56c | 65.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 29c | 55.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…f481backed Yes | 41c | 54.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked Yes | 21c | 53.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 38c | 47.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 28c | 43.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 29c | 36.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 45c | 34.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 34.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…78c5backed Yes | 77c | 28.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ba…f483backed Yes | 63c | 23.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…f9f6backed Yes | 66c | 22.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2322…9353backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $146?this page
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $147?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $148?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $149?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $150?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $151?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $152?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $153?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $154?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $155?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $156?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $157?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $158?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.