Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6986ad0034d9aad1bd9a57ce1e18c79d1b9fe7c391bed2b91a1e18e484c84639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 880.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 765$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 44c | 699.37$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.43 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 645.49$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 536.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.03 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 68c | 432.51$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.56 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 30c | 413.9$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.1 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 48c | 368.31$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 36c | 365.55$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.06 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ee23backed Yes | 65c | 361.98$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 361.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 36c | 359.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.09 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed No | 60c | 334.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 329.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.28 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 46c | 300$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.49 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 65c | 290.6$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 63c | 283.28$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.88 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 74c | 276.59$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 274.59$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 253.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.42 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 236.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.54 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 204.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 80c | 198.51$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 70c | 196.83$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 54c | 188.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 31c | 178.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 35c | 172$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.42 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 19c | 168.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 167.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 30c | 166.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 154.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 37c | 140.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 33c | 140.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 131.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 126.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 121.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 118.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 117.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 34c | 104$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…0002backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 93.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a5…9ae8backed No | 66c | 89.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 34c | 88.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 79c | 88.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 82.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 33c | 78.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 55c | 77.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 21c | 76.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed Yes | 31c | 75.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 32c | 74.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 66c | 74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd01…e719backed Yes | 36c | 70.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 69.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 68.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 70c | 67.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 36c | 66.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 68c | 65.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 65.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 65.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 63.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 63.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 72c | 62.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 62.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…714bbacked Yes | 32c | 61.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 69c | 59.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed No | 32c | 59.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 57.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 70c | 55.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 72c | 52.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 51.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 61c | 48.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e7…7b7bbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 39c | 47.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 46.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 54c | 45.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.