Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe40d947e9b418c525d05188d75b91f3ebc2d4a72f3ce67b7f1028296b0e0ebf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x657b…2094backed Yes | 47c | 2,117$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 52c | 788.77$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.61 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 684.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 629.76$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 61c | 605.48$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.11 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 47c | 540.71$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.86 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 51c | 500$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.18 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 417.05$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 294.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 50c | 261$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 259.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 41c | 244.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 243.68$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 237.03$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 49c | 232.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 231.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 230$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 220.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 49c | 214.77$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 53c | 211.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 210.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 20c | 209.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 199.34$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ee23backed Yes | 45c | 198.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 196.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 174.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 52c | 173.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 167.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 155$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 154.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 65c | 153.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 148.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 54c | 146.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 65c | 145.23$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 135$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 79c | 126.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 125.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 102.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 94.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 56c | 92.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 86.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 46c | 84.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 57c | 83.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 35c | 78.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 74.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 65.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 76c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 61.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 60.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Yes | 47c | 60.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 58c | 58.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0e…6144backed Yes | 28c | 58.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 55.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 53.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 38c | 53.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 36c | 50.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a5…9ae8backed No | 57c | 50.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…8223backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed No | 50c | 49.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 47.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 45.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…3550backed Yes | 35c | 43.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 28c | 42.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 59c | 42.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e90…c892backed Yes | 48c | 40.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 64c | 34.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 40c | 33.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd01…e719backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.