TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,996 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x657b…2094backed Yes47c2,117$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No52c788.77$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.6139543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes44c684.55$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No55c629.76$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.052,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No61c605.48$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.1119737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes47c540.71$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8639427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed No51c500$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.1828324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No55c417.05$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.582,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c294.59$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No50c261$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.671,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes23c259.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.842,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes41c244.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No56c243.68$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1071,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No55c237.03$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.664,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes49c232.49$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c231.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.998,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes37c230$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9854735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c220.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.664,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No49c214.77$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5726744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No53c211.52$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2147136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No54c210.42$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.154,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes20c209.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No56c199.34$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a50…ee23backed Yes45c198.63$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901520%3 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c196.96$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No60c174.44$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8279947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3427…2ff7backed No52c173.07$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.074247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes42c167.63$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c155$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.223,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c154.38$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.694,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb252…add8backed No65c153.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.722763%17 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No55c148.48$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.422,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No54c146.31$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7261821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No65c145.23$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.671,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c135$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.564,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c130$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No79c126.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6315570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c125.32$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.245,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No54c102.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.936,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1a…2987backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5329351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes55c99.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9925135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes38c94.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No56c92.88$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1934533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c86.14$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.045,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes46c84.35$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No57c83.71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3676059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes24c83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9217524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes35c78.61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6216733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes40c74.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No51c65.22$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.874,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No76c65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4927246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.895,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No59c61.02$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.944,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes38c60.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9354335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Yes47c60.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick47cpaid-82.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No58c58.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4139956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf0e…6144backed Yes28c58.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No50c58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.761,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes43c55.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.053,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No58c53.38$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.282,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes38c53.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes37c53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6147538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.954346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes36c50.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2111835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a5…9ae8backed No57c50.48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.68742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.431,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44fd…8223backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No55c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No61c49.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.59,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9efe…6357backed No50c49.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.312343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c47.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.663,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes37c45.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.582,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No60c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.852,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No55c44.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.141,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b58…3550backed Yes35c43.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No55c43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.352,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes28c42.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No59c42.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4119662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e90…c892backed Yes48c40.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x475f…17bcbacked Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No64c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.677151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes39c35.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414943.6%65 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No60c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.923666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3f5…3464backed Yes43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No64c34.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3815669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes40c33.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.281,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No55c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9120056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd01…e719backed Yes46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.