La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69c8332982cc96c18a42e99b54cf013efeed1487c52596fb65b93d37dd8c35e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 11,160$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,436.44 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 77c | 7,888$6,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.24 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 27c | 3,643$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 2,822$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.62 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Under | 74c | 1,977$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 1,261$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.03 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 26c | 1,077$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 27c | 610.59$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.86 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 26c | 402.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 74c | 402.23$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 331.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 25c | 185$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…74dcbacked Under | 75c | 99.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Over | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 23c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…4c50backed Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 25c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 37.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef3…2cd8backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 74c | 19.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 75c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Under | 75c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 76c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.