Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a50302ed5c94c0ae9671686b55379496aa07d94bfb8b6432018dc2a380205e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 78c | 2,518$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.09 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 72c | 1,098$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.06 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 61c | 620.42$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.31 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 32c | 519.7$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.82 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 30c | 500$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 58c | 488.39$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…f0febacked Yes | 74c | 486.17$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 63c | 474.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 54c | 473.35$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 32c | 402.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…8d0ebacked Yes | 53c | 348.19$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 337.03$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 68c | 271.19$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 54c | 246.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 75c | 245.1$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 207.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 59c | 198.8$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 56c | 180.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 72c | 171.38$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 28c | 135.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 77c | 129.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…eed1backed No | 77c | 124.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed No | 41c | 122.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 29c | 120.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 9c | 113.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 51c | 109.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 109$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…9454backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 48c | 99.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 38c | 94.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked No | 76c | 91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 29c | 83.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…5f22backed Yes | 77c | 77.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 14c | 76.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 67.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…15dfbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 60c | 46.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 45c | 42.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…dbd5backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6a…d37fbacked Yes | 73c | 37.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 71c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 72c | 35.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 36c | 34.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 78c | 33.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…441dbacked Yes | 35c | 32.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…d3ebbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fac…c122backed Yes | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef5…4a71backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or below on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or higher on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on November 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.