Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on November 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb900e048e43a6b86eb31e4e0631082181103f7ce07f7890f59c8f24f48f3300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 4,773$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,998$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 2c | 1,863$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,252$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…441dbacked Yes | 31c | 652.4$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 25c | 602.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 528.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…0346backed Yes | 33c | 449.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…f77bbacked No | 78c | 387.6$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 70c | 355.65$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 350$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…6707backed Yes | 22c | 317.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 25c | 310$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 14c | 310$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 305.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 37c | 300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 6c | 289.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 52c | 270.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…23cebacked Yes | 33c | 260$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 249.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 26c | 235$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 33c | 199.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 12c | 188.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed Yes | 29c | 177.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…0919backed Yes | 25c | 170.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked No | 78c | 160.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 136.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 14c | 132.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…8feabacked Yes | 26c | 110.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 63c | 109.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 49c | 102.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 50c | 99.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 42c | 99.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…959fbacked Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 83.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…9182backed Yes | 38c | 76.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed No | 73c | 71.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 48c | 69.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 69.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…09e8backed Yes | 29c | 52.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 45c | 50.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 50c | 49.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed Yes | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 46.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb712…44b6backed No | 58c | 45.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e3…f92fbacked No | 55c | 43.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4754…1369backed Yes | 46c | 37.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…6288backed Yes | 47c | 30.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…6074backed No | 58c | 28.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…602fbacked Yes | 48c | 27.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…020fbacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 49c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on November 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or below on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or higher on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on November 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.