TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,144

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c491.71$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.58,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes35c430.56$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.359747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes39c388.49$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.491,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c380.46$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6e7…c275backed Yes40c344.89$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.328234.1%28 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes36c344.88$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.3217440.8%71 W · 103 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes40c282.4$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.36136.1%22 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No39c269.12$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6430722.1%68 W · 239 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No52c240.68$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.182,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No41c209$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.544,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No30c184.44$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.714,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c169.23$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.099,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes42c169$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.811,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No64c160.72$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.972,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No55c159.3$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c154$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.128,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No67c144.94$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7238860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No69c137$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5186952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No12c126.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7439956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No66c124.9$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8523146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c121$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.814,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes32c120$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829137.4%34 W · 57 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No42c119.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.751,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes43c116$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1211927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No43c97.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.023,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No68c93.85$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.812,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes40c88.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.115630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No13c87.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.751,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c82.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes58c80.03$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.643050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.466,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20bf…7bcbbacked Yes34c77.61$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes74c76.89$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.96,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No22c75.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.981,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes32c75.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.311,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x463f…f78ebacked Yes40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No57c70.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9561760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c70$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd192…d266backed Yes29c69.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes46c68.65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9542061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No63c68.24$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9134151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.453,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No67c62.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.013,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c60.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.933,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes39c57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.779238%35 W · 57 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c56.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No61c55.14$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8460550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.033,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed No35c52.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5219663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes40c50.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5130849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.517144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No61c47.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.22,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No60c46.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8742366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.375,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b8…ea84backed Yes60c44.6$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No68c44.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3047175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c43.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No65c41.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9917553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes41c38.84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9285330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes39c38.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4682742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No33c35.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6737465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No67c34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.934,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes33c33.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5439543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes37c33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.912,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.194066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.260054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No68c28.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1318240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa29c…572abacked Yes37c28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.641250%6 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+66.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes78c25.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.661676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No66c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c23.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.994,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No43c23.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.042,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97a5…4dbfbacked No69c21.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.872650%13 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No66c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7620660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.219965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.892761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.223,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No65c19.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.722,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No66c19.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.941,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No61c18.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.261,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No65c18.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9991861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.