Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc62de0fad443c222b6e5241b214c4e8e6480badc6cd6c3409892c149c6a0c811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.67 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 265.24$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 41c | 242.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 225.65$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 192.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 62c | 176.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 59c | 168.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 164.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 49c | 163.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 47c | 136.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 75c | 134.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 58c | 130.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 35c | 123$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 121.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 119.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 119$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 44c | 111.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 46c | 108.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 50c | 100.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 99.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 36c | 93.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 51c | 93.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 14c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 88.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 85.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 83.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 56c | 73.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 64c | 72.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 47c | 70.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 70.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 60.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 51c | 59.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 51c | 59.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 45c | 55.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 54.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 55c | 54.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 26c | 45.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 42.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 50c | 41.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 38.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 37.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 35.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 37c | 34.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 34.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 50c | 30.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 44c | 25.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 62c | 24.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…bad1backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 57c | 20.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 64c | 19.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.