NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a8ee9a9486c5bc89053bd63418142c167609059dfd9a7e51348f39d9cb4fdfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 54c | 15,554$8,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,339.81 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Over | 50c | 4,995$2,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.49 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 52c | 3,383$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.69 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…45c6backed Under | 62c | 3,250$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 50c | 2,578$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.62 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 45c | 1,880$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.2 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 1,522$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.22 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Under | 50c | 1,502$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 1,011$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 39c | 1,008$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 901.84$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 872.3$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.36 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 782$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.82 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 699.98$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 50c | 694.14$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.07 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 50c | 621.66$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.83 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 52c | 600$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 46c | 194.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 24c | 170.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 46c | 109.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d292backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…e1e6backed Under | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…d6c8backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 68c | 84.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 47c | 81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 76c | 77.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4de3backed Under | 51c | 59.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 49c | 52.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…d9f0backed Under | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 53c | 45.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9b…c789backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…3264backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 38c | 31.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…dd6dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. HeatTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.