NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9cae5debd8a7ca866d1e60b0f654884087d4386eb5a54e43a8bbd455eac5da7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 51c | 21,943$11,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,280.13 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 15,112$7,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,854.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 53c | 3,331$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.19 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 51c | 3,200$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 2,013$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.84 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 1c | 1,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 1,442$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.35 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 1,306$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.81 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 56c | 1,117$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.89 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 1,093$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.36 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 53c | 881.04$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.96 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 49c | 809.04$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.61 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 740.34$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.66 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 651.35$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 614.39$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.41 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 63c | 485.88$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.57 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 469.65$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.79 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Under | 73c | 404.24$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.72 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Under | 70c | 400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 67c | 393.9$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…7f4cbacked Under | 55c | 349.09$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Under | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 7c | 288.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ec…427dbacked Under | 71c | 255.79$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.34 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 28c | 182.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.15 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 34c | 181.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 133$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 46c | 117.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 47c | 116.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…a1e4backed Under | 65c | 116.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 46c | 111.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 33c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 104.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 46c | 100.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Under | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bcabbacked Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 94.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Over | 49c | 91.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 35c | 84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 35c | 54.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 45c | 46.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 45.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 44c | 34.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 38c | 31.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 30.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed Under | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Under | 80c | 13.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. HeatTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.