NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa074cca792ca6d907da967e568f08a946663c379bb8390bc926f72c475509f27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 5,800$2,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,983.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 50c | 3,080$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 50c | 2,462$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 2,455$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.44 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 2,100$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 26c | 1,422$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.71 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,350$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6905…e3c2backed Under | 51c | 1,161$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.57 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 314.76$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Over | 50c | 256.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 43c | 96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 60c | 66.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 50c | 60.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 59c | 57.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 39c | 47.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 45.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 47cpaid | +108%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7c…f77cbacked Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f82…0ffebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. HeatTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.