NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2f5570c60e263270595e396cb5a7534f1a0a96f72eac48c49743cee7af3e1ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 5,741$3,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,626.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 42c | 1,946$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.43 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 48c | 1,354$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Under | 75c | 1,210$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.4 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 827.92$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.67 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 70c | 724.33$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.34 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 33c | 511.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 30c | 369.04$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.12 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…e9abbacked Over | 41c | 331.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 41c | 326.16$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 42c | 320.7$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.57 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 293.09$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 21c | 254.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 53c | 230.94$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 19c | 217.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 19c | 214$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 31c | 170$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b2…7025backed Under | 79c | 161.1$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 111 | 36%40 W · 71 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…3f7abacked Under | 65c | 153.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa985…1ebfbacked Under | 56c | 144.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 132.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 113.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 109.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 61c | 108.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 25c | 86.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 61c | 82.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over | 39c | 77.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over | 37c | 72.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Under | 68c | 69.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 39c | 64.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 65c | 61.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 35c | 54.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 60c | 48.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Under | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 25c | 42.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 38c | 39.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 71c | 38.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Under | 77c | 37.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…2d48backed Under | 56c | 33.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 53c | 22.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. HeatTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.