NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94d8282581cde0718cee7f04d7502d3596fdc2237f4cd8f1121e3781bfb1943b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Timberwolves | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.98 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 51c | 2,064$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.78 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Heat | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 54c | 1,674$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,466$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.87 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Heat | 46c | 1,247$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.62 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 54c | 1,107$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Heat | 53c | 651$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.03 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Heat | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Heat | 53c | 574.09$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.27 | 548 | 53.8%295 W · 253 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Heat | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Heat | 45c | 333.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 302.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.59 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Heat | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves | 59c | 291.55$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Heat | 54c | 278.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 47c | 260.42$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.02 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Heat | 28c | 254$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Heat | 60c | 233.57$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Timberwolves | 64c | 230$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Heat | 54c | 225.93$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Timberwolves | 46c | 215.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Heat | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Heat | 23c | 159$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Heat | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Heat | 53c | 109.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…b9e9backed Heat | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Heat | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…b5a2backed Heat | 54c | 88.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Timberwolves | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Heat | 55c | 54.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Timberwolves | 45c | 52.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Heat | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat | 47c | 42.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Timberwolves | 54c | 41.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 50c | 36.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Timberwolves | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Timberwolves | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Timberwolves | 49c | 30.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Heat | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…6e99backed Heat | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. HeatTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.