TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

La Liga · resolved market

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$207,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,688 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under10c74,523$7,499 inLost-$7,498.9799933.4%334 W · 665 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under11c3,829$414 inLost-$413.61,50838.7%583 W · 925 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under10c2,540$254 inLost-$2542040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under10c1,583$158 inLost-$158.3389050%445 W · 445 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under10c1,259$126 inLost-$125.851,08150.6%547 W · 534 L+11.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under10c1,246$125 inLost-$124.591,03848.1%499 W · 539 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Under11c1,153$127 inLost-$126.835131.4%16 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under10c1,121$112 inLost-$112.0811542.6%49 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1a…f598backed Under1c1,114$11 inLost-$11.141816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16e…43afbacked Under3c1,026$31 inLost-$30.781233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c35…78abbacked Under1c1,000$10 inLost-$101030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under10c1,000$100 inLost-$10048153.6%258 W · 223 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Under11c999.99$110 inLost-$11011822.9%27 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under10c975$98 inLost-$97.512546.4%58 W · 67 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under10c885.72$90 inLost-$89.6468450.6%346 W · 338 L+15.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under10c625.69$64 inLost-$64.3857139.2%224 W · 347 L+1.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under10c512$51 inLost-$51.212460.5%75 W · 49 L+12.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc2c8…142bbacked Under21c486.4$103 inLost-$103.121330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+82.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04cf…9f77backed Under12c288.99$35 inLost-$34.681822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-60%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x25e5…eaa2backed Under12c275$33 inLost-$33450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf934…8858backed Under12c270$32 inLost-$32.42040%8 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under10c159.37$16 inLost-$16.3718046.7%84 W · 96 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under13c150$19 inLost-$18.7514525.5%37 W · 108 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…9507backed Under14c129.03$19 inLost-$18.631315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-74.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed Over79c126.98$100 inWon+$27.232560%15 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under10c119$12 inLost-$11.91,65543.8%725 W · 930 L-22.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under10c113.2$11 inLost-$11.3245450%227 W · 227 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c36…4da4backed Under15c102.58$15 inLost-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-77.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over79c69.75$55 inWon+$14.753256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5e…c32abacked Over75c66.67$50 inWon+$16.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Under25c61.67$15 inLost-$15.4211664.7%75 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under22c46.09$10 inLost-$10.143,44943%1,484 W · 1,965 L+32.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b8…4a59backed Over78c46.09$36 inWon+$10.14425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce74…e6ecbacked Over75c32$24 inWon+$82853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52dc…472cbacked Over75c26.28$20 inWon+$6.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c1…dc25backed Over79c21$17 inWon+$4.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.