Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ba11cb561470cc6fbb7d39fbea81e9432f5d195559693a11f3d81ce18f7204c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 520.4$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 21c | 368.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 344.11$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 32c | 250.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 30c | 183.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 182.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 181.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 33c | 172.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 168$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 140.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 123.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 118.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 118.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…d1f0backed Yes | 31c | 113.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 99.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 27c | 74.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 43c | 70.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 63.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 62.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 25c | 61.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 60.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…4633backed No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed Yes | 32c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 25c | 56.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 25c | 52.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 28c | 52.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 51.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…6f79backed Yes | 33c | 50.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 32c | 50.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 64c | 50.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…eb61backed Yes | 37c | 48.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 46.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 41.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 39.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…208abacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 26.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 24.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 74c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 75c | 21.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 62c | 19.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.