Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7388acad46caa1e356fd8113a8c40eed3bd21bbf14e9288c35f7c55b778626a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 367.49$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 78c | 336.58$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 31c | 305.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.94 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 67c | 239.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 204.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 63c | 199.18$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 181.11$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 180$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 58c | 166.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 165$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 146.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 11c | 140.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 138.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 134.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 117.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 106.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 106.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 103.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…eb61backed Yes | 65c | 103.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 67c | 86.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 86.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 36c | 86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 84.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 79.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…4551backed Yes | 79c | 72.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 52c | 67.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 37c | 63.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…6f79backed Yes | 33c | 63.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 56c | 63.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 33c | 61.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 60.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 56.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 50.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 49.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 31c | 43.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 50c | 41.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 35.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c0…1a74backed Yes | 52c | 34.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 53c | 33.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 65c | 23.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 72c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.