Fifa International · resolved market
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bc95cd72c9e20159bbf5ece7d5522a3708594d2faca13585716d99014a9a4c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb41a…0a9bbacked Under | 7c | 7,270$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.87 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 21c | 4,427$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.68 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed Under | 21c | 1,633$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.84 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 72c | 1,500$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.49 | 104 | 71.2%74 W · 30 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 79c | 1,150$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.89 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…dff1backed Under | 39c | 1,022$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 77c | 725.03$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.03 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf12…76debacked Under | 38c | 599.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…931dbacked Under | 5c | 555.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…ce0abacked Over | 70c | 402.65$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 50 | 74%37 W · 13 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 384.91$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 79c | 358.26$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 25c | 326.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 347 | 31.1%108 W · 239 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…9d1abacked Under | 25c | 318.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 302.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b99…8f62backed Over | 62c | 287.1$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…71b4backed Under | 41c | 245.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 71c | 218.38$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Over | 74c | 205.72$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Under | 19c | 203.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 184 | 35.3%65 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 234 | 40.2%94 W · 140 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Over | 77c | 195.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Under | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 514 | 29.4%151 W · 363 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 19c | 164.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 13c | 147.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 251 | 25.1%63 W · 188 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 62c | 146.84$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 697 | 44.9%313 W · 384 L | +18.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 19c | 128.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f1…db16backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 15c | 123.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Under | 31c | 120.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Under | 18c | 111.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 282 | 40.8%115 W · 167 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5c…41f3backed Under | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 29c | 97.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…1cb8backed Under | 29c | 93.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 20c | 79.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…d4d4backed Under | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -10.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 19c | 55.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 37c | 55.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 384 | 39.8%153 W · 231 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Over | 74c | 49.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 67c | 43.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 76c | 27.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 198 | 62.1%123 W · 75 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9c…f77dbacked Under | 40c | 25.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Over | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 200 | 53%106 W · 94 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Over | 75c | 20.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab9…c35abacked Over | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 80c | 15.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5this page
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Ecuador won
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Ecuador won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.