Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ead4d28471898d3c8815fb7ca857721ce3883eb2b4deebfd1331a2b2778890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ecuadorof Ecuador, Guatemala
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Ecuador | 35c | 1,439$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.7 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Ecuador | 35c | 1,151$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.45 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Guatemala | 61c | 909.4$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.03 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Ecuador | 35c | 729.55$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.03 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Guatemala | 65c | 657.6$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Guatemala | 65c | 602.16$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.41 | 383 | 51.4%197 W · 186 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Guatemala | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Guatemala | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Ecuador | 36c | 558.57$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.57 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Ecuador | 36c | 454.95$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.9 | 140 | 61.4%86 W · 54 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Guatemala | 65c | 325.16$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.42 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Guatemala | 65c | 319.02$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…5463backed Ecuador | 37c | 311.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.45 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Ecuador | 39c | 300$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.52 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Guatemala | 66c | 240$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Guatemala | 65c | 240$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 408 | 48.8%199 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Guatemala | 65c | 223.32$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Guatemala | 43c | 178.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Guatemala | 63c | 160.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 145 | 64.1%93 W · 52 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ecuador | 68c | 157.38$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Guatemala | 66c | 150.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…ccf6backed Ecuador | 35c | 144.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 171 | 45%77 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…5561backed Guatemala | 62c | 139.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Ecuador | 37c | 135$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 283 | 26.1%74 W · 209 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Ecuador | 35c | 112.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…f866backed Ecuador | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Guatemala | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Guatemala | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 336 | 53.3%179 W · 157 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Ecuador | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 432 | 46.8%202 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Ecuador | 33c | 94.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | +36.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Guatemala | 60c | 92.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Ecuador | 36c | 89.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Guatemala | 67c | 87.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…740cbacked Guatemala | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…4db8backed Ecuador | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Ecuador | 38c | 69.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Ecuador | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…aec4backed Guatemala | 65c | 51.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…1cb8backed Ecuador | 36c | 51.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Guatemala | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Ecuador | 36c | 48.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Guatemala | 67c | 47.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Guatemala | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Ecuador | 36c | 43.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 1,141 | 46.2%527 W · 614 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Ecuador | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Guatemala | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Guatemala | 65c | 34.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Ecuador | 50c | 33.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 607 | 52.4%318 W · 289 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8f…b302backed Guatemala | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Guatemala | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 459 | 49.5%227 W · 232 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…10d5backed Ecuador | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…c2bebacked Guatemala | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…39e0backed Ecuador | 57c | 26.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked Ecuador | 57c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +34.7wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +61%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Ecuador | 57c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Ecuador | 57c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +19.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Ecuador | 57c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +20.5wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Ecuador | 57c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Ecuador | 57c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | +25.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Ecuador | 57c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +22.2wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Ecuador | 57c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +20.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Guatemala | 50c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Guatemala | 66c | 24.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Guatemala | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Guatemala | 64c | 23.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Guatemala | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Guatemala | 62c | 17.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)this page
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Ecuador won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.