Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Damascus by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c07f2a9470d0993ec40a0e12b633126b2bec341a1a8041e4895f080505face7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 7c | 6,606$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.44 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 18c | 1,921$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.45 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,299$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,204$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 918.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 16c | 850.7$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 7c | 828.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 53c | 692.97$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.64 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 6c | 666.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 31c | 622.37$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 601.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 570.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c21…cee8backed Yes | 18c | 544.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 59c | 510.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 13c | 479.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 75c | 432.5$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 413.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 402.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 14c | 384.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…ca54backed No | 68c | 350$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 11c | 266.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 244.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…16b1backed Yes | 8c | 242.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 14cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 15c | 242.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…4424backed Yes | 9c | 224$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…489dbacked Yes | 58c | 200.65$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes | 21c | 188.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 21c | 173$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 77c | 172$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 7c | 165.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 62c | 102.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +7.6wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 19c | 95.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 22c | 87.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…f8ecbacked Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d8…ecbdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…0f34backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.