TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

First Blood in Game 4?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
BNK FEARXof T1, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,299 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25a9…7076backed T158c3,401$1,956 inLost-$1,955.9316844.6%75 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BNK FEARX42c3,306$1,400 inWon+$1,906.183,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb475…2ed2backed T127c300$81 inLost-$813528.6%10 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed T160c224.58$135 inLost-$134.754143.9%18 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0267…dc5abacked T127c200$54 inLost-$541258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.29per pick30cpaid+110.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b5c…a4fcbacked T127c200$54 inLost-$542138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4b…75b3backed T160c166.67$100 inLost-$1005644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ac…6b83backed T156c89.29$50 inLost-$5028643%123 W · 163 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf78f…f98dbacked T156c50$28 inLost-$283281.3%26 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30a5…2ee0backed T156c40$22 inLost-$22.44334.9%15 W · 28 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.