TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BNK FEARXof T1, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,153 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b4d…e246backed T136c102,845$37,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,024.379534.7%33 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked BNK FEARX64c63,947$40,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,160.524544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX64c29,848$19,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,751.821,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed BNK FEARX64c8,800$5,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,16813344.4%59 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked BNK FEARX64c7,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5209100%9 W · 0 L+4.1wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+128.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed T137c4,788$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.4525547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed T137c4,473$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.7927346.9%128 W · 145 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed BNK FEARX64c4,167$2,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.1221154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed T11c3,714$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.489810.7%96 W · 802 L+2.6wins0.00per pick10cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed BNK FEARX64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08017744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked T137c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50028150.5%142 W · 139 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed T135c1,349$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.2423439.7%93 W · 141 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed T136c1,133$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4083938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f67…da0ebacked T137c1,081$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9510133.7%34 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed BNK FEARX65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.151758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed T137c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702853.6%15 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed T135c999.96$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.981,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed T134c934.55$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.7582352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed T111c628.08$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.112317.4%4 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-66.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed BNK FEARX65c506.97$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.6874949.7%372 W · 377 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed BNK FEARX66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17017561.1%107 W · 68 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed BNK FEARX59c439.02$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed T141c439.02$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18013136.6%48 W · 83 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb24f…c638backed BNK FEARX64c406.25$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.2520051.5%103 W · 97 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7ef9backed T137c402.03$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked T111c314.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6414429.2%42 W · 102 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked BNK FEARX65c285.47$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0530255.6%168 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa179…8645backed T136c277.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9917038.2%65 W · 105 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed T135c277.08$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.981,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed BNK FEARX64c272.37$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.057754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed T136c217.89$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4492342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed T132c214.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.711,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked BNK FEARX68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03fa…02bbbacked BNK FEARX64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ce…5310backed BNK FEARX64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+65.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3c…a356backed BNK FEARX64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94c0…5b71backed BNK FEARX65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3230…782dbacked BNK FEARX66c152.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.11850%9 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c41…c63ebacked T137c148.65$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked BNK FEARX65c142.19$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.446847.1%32 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d20…ca2abacked BNK FEARX64c140$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.413935.3%49 W · 90 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x709d…0a62backed T140c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026052.7%137 W · 123 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed BNK FEARX64c125$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc76e…caa5backed BNK FEARX64c121.5$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7431352.4%164 W · 149 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f2…e0c9backed T142c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018161.3%111 W · 70 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked T139c116.73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4649346.5%229 W · 264 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c30…d531backed T138c115.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4413951.8%72 W · 67 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed BNK FEARX60c95$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31fa…20c5backed T137c92.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.085844.8%26 W · 32 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff16…804ebacked BNK FEARX66c90.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9113849.3%68 W · 70 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb51…359dbacked BNK FEARX66c89.39$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.393458.8%20 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked T137c88.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6328837.5%108 W · 180 L-16.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed BNK FEARX64c81.2$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2315050%75 W · 75 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed T137c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.667763.4%429 W · 248 L-16.4wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc20d…b58bbacked BNK FEARX64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.136966.7%46 W · 23 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked T132c74.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.023554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc913…488bbacked T140c73.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked T136c73.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6244743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed T135c65.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9144128.1%124 W · 317 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed BNK FEARX60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2454054.3%293 W · 247 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb665…ed24backed BNK FEARX66c59.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.263360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x750c…2fe3backed BNK FEARX66c59.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.253661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0828…3851backed BNK FEARX65c57$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick35cpaid+128.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed BNK FEARX64c54.84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.794555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed T137c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012437.9%47 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked T141c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.579345.4%360 W · 433 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c38…fd63backed BNK FEARX59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.319564.2%61 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9698…de01backed BNK FEARX64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.883860.5%23 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed BNK FEARX64c46.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5813054.6%71 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1134…848fbacked BNK FEARX62c40.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.041850%9 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked BNK FEARX60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168243.9%36 W · 46 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e72…c55fbacked T138c37.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.253046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b1…799abacked T140c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516750.3%84 W · 83 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6937…7340backed BNK FEARX64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.253066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3e…7366backed BNK FEARX64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked BNK FEARX64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2536244.2%160 W · 202 L+13.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3444…726ebacked BNK FEARX64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.252085%17 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick70cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7325…0574backed BNK FEARX65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.772536%9 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdefd…afbcbacked BNK FEARX64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.89538.9%37 W · 58 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf7…a506backed T140c29.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.764438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed BNK FEARX58c24.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.127052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…1c78backed BNK FEARX64c23.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed BNK FEARX65c22.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9515551.6%80 W · 75 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1213…5ed6backed BNK FEARX65c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.73444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4243…62d4backed BNK FEARX65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68d…4452backed BNK FEARX66c18.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.342065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+143%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ce…8945backed BNK FEARX64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab64…a24abacked BNK FEARX64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.