TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liverpool FCof Liverpool FC, West Ham United FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,196 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9c4…6f95backed Liverpool FC46c119,870$55,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,835.2616040.6%65 W · 95 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed West Ham United FC54c63,378$34,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,2901457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed West Ham United FC52c25,402$13,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,169.476,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed West Ham United FC55c20,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,999.975246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee0d…57abbacked Liverpool FC45c18,777$8,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,327.571163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed West Ham United FC55c10,071$5,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,538.121855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed West Ham United FC54c9,900$5,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3461,28348%616 W · 667 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Liverpool FC46c8,000$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,339.9850644.3%224 W · 282 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked West Ham United FC54c6,753$3,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.772,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed West Ham United FC54c3,320$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.1475850%379 W · 379 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed West Ham United FC55c3,032$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.3714845.9%68 W · 80 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Liverpool FC45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65045936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed West Ham United FC54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62033057%188 W · 142 L+17.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Liverpool FC45c2,949$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.1851750.1%259 W · 258 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Liverpool FC46c2,254$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.1152454.2%284 W · 240 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf747…7d29backed West Ham United FC55c2,174$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2003938.5%15 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Liverpool FC46c1,886$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.213557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked West Ham United FC55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011349.6%56 W · 57 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Liverpool FC66c1,116$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.8882763%521 W · 306 L+113.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+41.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed West Ham United FC55c1,036$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.812454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed West Ham United FC55c857.81$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.85058%29 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed West Ham United FC35c857.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked West Ham United FC54c800$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43236956.9%210 W · 159 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed West Ham United FC55c777$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.3572249.9%360 W · 362 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked West Ham United FC54c599.99$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32423258.2%135 W · 97 L+13.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked West Ham United FC54c599.99$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3243053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+29.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x355c…2c1cbacked Liverpool FC45c577.78$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.781040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Liverpool FC46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.786541.5%27 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Liverpool FC50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20030059.7%179 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Liverpool FC47c363.45$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6311324.8%28 W · 85 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked West Ham United FC54c360$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.419357.5%111 W · 82 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x95db…dc65backed Liverpool FC46c350$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1892040%8 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed West Ham United FC50c312.26$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.721,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6632…6dc2backed Liverpool FC48c303$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked West Ham United FC54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16235056.9%199 W · 151 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked West Ham United FC54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16259958.9%353 W · 246 L+26.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked West Ham United FC54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16260557.5%348 W · 257 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked West Ham United FC54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16210874.1%80 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed West Ham United FC54c269.48$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.7413152.7%69 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked West Ham United FC55c260.54$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1434247.6%20 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed West Ham United FC54c256.82$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.916357.1%93 W · 70 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed West Ham United FC54c250$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13537557.3%215 W · 160 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked West Ham United FC54c249.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9996443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed West Ham United FC54c249.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.991,22442.3%518 W · 706 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed West Ham United FC54c249.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.991,07445%483 W · 591 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked West Ham United FC56c232.14$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13016233.3%54 W · 108 L-14.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Liverpool FC44c232.14$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13019253.1%102 W · 90 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b0…f879backed Liverpool FC46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.392733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Liverpool FC46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3910757%61 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked West Ham United FC55c203.98$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.24645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed West Ham United FC55c181$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.554353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df4…4eacbacked West Ham United FC56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-55.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed West Ham United FC54c165$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.17550.7%38 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x635f…6be6backed Liverpool FC66c162.12$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.122040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Liverpool FC45c147.46$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.19749.5%48 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed West Ham United FC54c129.63$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017053.5%91 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.833156.8%188 W · 143 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.846660.5%282 W · 184 L+30.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.832255.9%180 W · 142 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.833057%188 W · 142 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.832656.7%185 W · 141 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.836758.3%214 W · 153 L+23.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.832755.7%182 W · 145 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.856158.6%329 W · 232 L+29.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.838358.2%223 W · 160 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.831557.8%182 W · 133 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed West Ham United FC54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.832158.6%188 W · 133 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked West Ham United FC45c114.58$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9542658%247 W · 179 L+24.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Liverpool FC46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.722242.8%95 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff6b…c91abacked Liverpool FC46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a12…11e8backed Liverpool FC46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed West Ham United FC54c108.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.77357.5%42 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Liverpool FC46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.77146.5%33 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Liverpool FC46c103$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7528242.2%119 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked West Ham United FC54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5429657.8%171 W · 125 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe252…2071backed Liverpool FC67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa03…45e9backed West Ham United FC54c94$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.812825%7 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-42.6%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2062…6be2backed West Ham United FC54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked West Ham United FC54c92.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9927748.7%135 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1020…366cbacked West Ham United FC55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e6…1dcbbacked West Ham United FC56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+97.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Liverpool FC77c88.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2419455.2%107 W · 87 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed West Ham United FC54c87.87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.453171%22 W · 9 L+7.7wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+53.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed West Ham United FC54c81$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.581,61553%856 W · 759 L+33.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed West Ham United FC54c80.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2549753.7%267 W · 230 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x59f8…953fbacked West Ham United FC55c74.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed West Ham United FC21c72.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3351516.1%83 W · 432 L-49.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked West Ham United FC53c70.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.451,93442.4%820 W · 1,114 L-43.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a3…bce8backed Liverpool FC45c68.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.513043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Liverpool FC43c68.2$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8751847.3%245 W · 273 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked West Ham United FC54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.414560%87 W · 58 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed West Ham United FC54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.428458.8%167 W · 117 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed West Ham United FC54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.427758.8%163 W · 114 L+17.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed West Ham United FC54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.425560%153 W · 102 L+18.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed West Ham United FC35c57.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed Liverpool FC46c56.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.525954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5700…a854backed Liverpool FC45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.562035%7 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed Liverpool FC45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5611839%46 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb8…a474backed Liverpool FC46c54.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.342378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.4wins+0.24per pick55cpaid+43.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Liverpool FC47c53.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.659235.9%33 W · 59 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.