TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, LNG Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff80…9b4dbacked LNG Esports38c17,630$6,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,695.3637245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…37a4backed LNG Esports22c11,205$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4191233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed LNG Esports1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001276.3%8 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x310f…4e42backed Bilibili Gaming58c6,198$3,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,605.994075%30 W · 10 L+9.0wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+36.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Bilibili Gaming61c6,041$3,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.0642050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked LNG Esports1c5,047$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.866297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Bilibili Gaming60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3f…a807backed LNG Esports1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30535.7%3 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-68%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed LNG Esports42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26031036.1%112 W · 198 L-18.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x794e…4247backed LNG Esports1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30750%0 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed LNG Esports36c2,789$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012338.2%47 W · 76 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Bilibili Gaming62c2,500$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9421,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed Bilibili Gaming66c2,299$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.667276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked LNG Esports38c2,207$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.592,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe131…f63abacked LNG Esports40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked LNG Esports38c1,962$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.678438.1%32 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe795…8caebacked LNG Esports28c1,927$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.9120354.7%111 W · 92 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bilibili Gaming75c1,598$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.5585046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Bilibili Gaming67c1,571$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.11,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed LNG Esports21c1,500$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.996338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef1a…d048backed LNG Esports17c1,340$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.7512444.4%55 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Bilibili Gaming76c1,315$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.622930.6%70 W · 159 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Bilibili Gaming66c1,210$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.771,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c3…4b1ebacked Bilibili Gaming75c1,207$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.14837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed Bilibili Gaming77c1,189$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.4310250%51 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed LNG Esports32c1,185$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.993,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Bilibili Gaming70c1,080$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.867552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Bilibili Gaming75c1,037$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.1743539.5%172 W · 263 L-24.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked LNG Esports23c1,017$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.4813543%58 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed LNG Esports25c1,000$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.751,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed Bilibili Gaming64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3607869.2%54 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked LNG Esports17c1,000$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.366334.9%22 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5073…59f0backed LNG Esports27c999.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2709348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Bilibili Gaming67c999.95$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.9823657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Bilibili Gaming61c977.57$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.8412132.2%39 W · 82 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed LNG Esports31c963.79$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30035035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed LNG Esports27c946.87$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.952,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccc9…ac2cbacked LNG Esports1c799.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Bilibili Gaming69c795.48$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4622654.4%123 W · 103 L+20.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked LNG Esports39c774.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed LNG Esports13c766.4$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.186147.5%29 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked Bilibili Gaming59c699.99$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.0621848.6%106 W · 112 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Bilibili Gaming78c689.57$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9470162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Bilibili Gaming63c684.13$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.1366947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Bilibili Gaming75c629.1$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.584546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Bilibili Gaming71c623.46$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aea…3c2bbacked LNG Esports24c575$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+54.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bilibili Gaming61c562.7$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.8515945.3%72 W · 87 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Bilibili Gaming72c554.01$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.1218755.1%103 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed LNG Esports29c505.63$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.637852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Bilibili Gaming70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504434.1%15 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9a7…add9backed LNG Esports22c444.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.92740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Bilibili Gaming78c402.56$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.567451.4%38 W · 36 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-25.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed LNG Esports25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Bilibili Gaming65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14050547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Bilibili Gaming76c399.98$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9667549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfabf…2814backed Bilibili Gaming67c380$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.65949.2%29 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed9e…5fc7backed LNG Esports28c357.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d9…3261backed Bilibili Gaming61c356.38$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.421070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed Bilibili Gaming72c350.88$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.931,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe38…f858backed LNG Esports41c342.85$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed LNG Esports5c337.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8723915.9%38 W · 201 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+53.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a16…de20backed Bilibili Gaming60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3327455.8%153 W · 121 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed Bilibili Gaming59c333$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5320764.3%133 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc67b…c149backed Bilibili Gaming62c328.4$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.81361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Bilibili Gaming66c321.62$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.353650%18 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed LNG Esports41c299.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12323624.6%58 W · 178 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed LNG Esports36c281.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.954542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Bilibili Gaming76c280.34$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2819239.1%75 W · 117 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76d4…3ad4backed Bilibili Gaming74c280.29$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.661233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Bilibili Gaming72c279.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.818046.7%84 W · 96 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2de…6e5cbacked Bilibili Gaming62c274.88$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8810560%63 W · 42 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bilibili Gaming71c267.92$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.81,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Bilibili Gaming75c265.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5813353.4%71 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed LNG Esports12c243.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2122747.6%108 W · 119 L+13.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8bd…56b6backed LNG Esports24c240.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.793354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked LNG Esports22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4412450%62 W · 62 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x096f…5c68backed Bilibili Gaming62c199.99$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7721644%95 W · 121 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ff…7b70backed LNG Esports8c195.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed LNG Esports29c184.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0589810.7%96 W · 802 L+2.6wins0.00per pick10cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed LNG Esports24c183.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4419042.1%80 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed LNG Esports33c181.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8454054.3%293 W · 247 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Bilibili Gaming60c180.55$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4546552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed LNG Esports21c180$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.81457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Bilibili Gaming78c170.52$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4828855.9%161 W · 127 L-20.1wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed LNG Esports37c164.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016941.4%70 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b3…67cdbacked Bilibili Gaming62c161.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…501ebacked Bilibili Gaming75c159.33$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.338657%49 W · 37 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x674a…3600backed Bilibili Gaming65c156.92$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.923148.4%15 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe70d…dd35backed Bilibili Gaming80c150.79$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7912661.1%77 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Bilibili Gaming67c149.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2170752.9%374 W · 333 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a8…4329backed Bilibili Gaming68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062060%12 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bilibili Gaming72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.892,33640.4%943 W · 1,393 L-58.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cc…0540backed LNG Esports27c136.66$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.523742.2%100 W · 137 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Bilibili Gaming64c130$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.812454%67 W · 57 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5024…b8bcbacked Bilibili Gaming78c128.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6621255.2%117 W · 95 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed LNG Esports36c126.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.584050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed LNG Esports30c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3666445.6%303 W · 361 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f90…d50fbacked Bilibili Gaming64c120$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.23839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked LNG Esports22c119$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.18742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.