MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d2f3f6a7c895790170cfc8813be5924721d26654237258a66eae8385b99ffe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 49c | 12,016$5,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,129.29 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,430 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 4,846$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.54 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 4,662$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,467.82 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 49c | 3,184$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.16 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 49c | 2,091$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.22 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 47c | 2,078$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.51 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 1,821$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.65 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 53c | 1,330$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.9 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 1,139$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.97 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 49c | 971$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.79 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 897.89$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.09 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 675.21$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.43 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 51c | 576.75$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.61 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 50c | 508.28$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.14 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 507.84$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.07 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 428.69$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.09 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 425$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.75 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 70c | 414.57$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 399.98$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 52c | 339.4$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 50c | 310.36$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 304.71$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed Under | 51c | 286.82$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 51c | 248.85$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…fd6cbacked Over | 48c | 215.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 47c | 203$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 59c | 193.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 52c | 193$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 49c | 177.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 520 | 45.2%235 W · 285 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 59c | 146.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 59c | 121.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 111.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 31c | 110.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 51c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 54c | 92.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 51c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 51c | 80.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 51c | 78.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 900 | 53.6%482 W · 418 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 77.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 71.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 51c | 68.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 66.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 53c | 66.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 51c | 49.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 46c | 46.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 31c | 44.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 55c | 40.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 28.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 28.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 44c | 24.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 56c | 23.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 59c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 63c | 19.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.