MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c44e40a763fdc058dbdf268b8630f32adfb0216b641ac4d4a957ee8a5605179
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Seattle Mariners | 66c | 45,170$29,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,646.15 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 28,765$9,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,827.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 4,353$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,844.21 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 4,163$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.85 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 3,791$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,477.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 32c | 1,275$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.77 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 1,246$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.2 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 956.82$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 782.14$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.77 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 608.76$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…9e59backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 577.2$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.18 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 545.71$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 474$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.86 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Seattle Mariners | 4c | 418$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 360$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 286$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 282.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.36 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 242.72$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.56 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 240.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 199$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.34 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 190.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 132.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 124.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 91.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 84.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 84.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 65.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 55.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 48.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 47.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be5…e3cabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 33.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 28.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 26.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…2b32backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 24.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 23.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 17.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.