Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d40f2b17068d6ff4147f099d3d03c6b8e8bc506f76dd4ce613c7a5847b19712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 47c | 4,550$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,422.73 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 2,289$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.94 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 821.35$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.38 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 685.67$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 52c | 598.37$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.17 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 559.75$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 4c | 468.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 402.75$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.75 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 373.54$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 71c | 360$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 50c | 315$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 299.78$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 270.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 33c | 242.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 195.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 191.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 30c | 169.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 65c | 169$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 165.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 33c | 157.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 148.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 46c | 146.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 46c | 145.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 130.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 43c | 126.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 124.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 122.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…6593backed Yes | 33c | 109.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 106.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 40c | 104.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 103.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 39c | 100.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed Yes | 39c | 97.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 60c | 83.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 82.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 40c | 79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 38c | 77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 32c | 68.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 73c | 68.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 68.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 64.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…a5cabacked Yes | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…2e8fbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 54.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 32c | 54.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 47c | 49.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 55c | 47.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 56c | 46.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 45.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 28c | 44.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 32c | 44.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 38.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 37.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 50c | 33.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0f…60b8backed Yes | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 72c | 30.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 53c | 30.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 63c | 28.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 66c | 28.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 65c | 28.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 58c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 47c | 24.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 67c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.