Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49fc4271e6c9091a85e94d91e72083de8755574697ca35789b28a38ca3b904e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 34c | 5,237$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.88 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 4,711$2,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.74 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 589.56$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 49c | 500$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 12c | 482.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 14c | 462.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 438.74$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 312.76$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 43c | 291$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…ce5dbacked Yes | 4c | 260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 250.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 248$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 234.08$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 228.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 227.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 203.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 199.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bb…8295backed Yes | 22c | 199.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 78c | 198.59$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 190.08$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 26c | 188.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 177.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 165.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 150.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 16c | 148$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 140.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 8c | 128.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 125.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 9c | 117.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 112.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 51c | 111.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 49c | 109.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 104.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 50c | 102.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 30c | 96.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 57c | 89.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 79.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 77.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 77.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 76.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 67.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 57.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 43c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…ca41backed Yes | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 24c | 50.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 39c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 23c | 46.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 32c | 46.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 40c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 24c | 42.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 64c | 40.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 38.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 78c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 56c | 30.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Yes | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 27.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 64c | 26.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 25.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…5e40backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 78c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.