Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d84f09e990b0b44858e898d794a60f73885f6b287cb5d6faa3b1872f7b6a3b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 31c | 2,082$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.15 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 72c | 1,051$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.98 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Up | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Down | 79c | 624.24$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.74 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 30c | 378.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…4f67backed Down | 80c | 311.48$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed Up | 36c | 244.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Up | 34c | 232.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b94…23eabacked Up | 36c | 171.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 44c | 159.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…48a7backed Down | 66c | 148.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eb49backed Up | 36c | 148.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 70c | 146.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Down | 77c | 128.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 47c | 114.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Up | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Up | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Up | 36c | 97.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed Up | 47c | 82.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef8e…7465backed Up | 57c | 62.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Down | 64c | 55.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…90c7backed Down | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…3a5abacked Up | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…5217backed Up | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e5…71e3backed Up | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0e…1d8bbacked Up | 31c | 48.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Down | 61c | 46.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 76c | 38.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…d606backed Up | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc4…a340backed Down | 63c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed Up | 49c | 23.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Up | 47c | 23.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Down | 67c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.