Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e14dda2bcd959118d337e490a88289d3163ee92b9f4dbe5c45fbb8f310a417e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 1,630$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 904.28$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 56c | 668.63$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.25 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 51c | 667.39$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.7 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 500.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 38c | 314.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 54c | 234$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 200.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 187.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 49c | 185.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 174.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 172.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 53c | 170$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 165.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 58c | 161.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 58c | 159.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 136.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 129.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…a31bbacked Yes | 50c | 109$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 100.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 95.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 93.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 92.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 87.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 53c | 83.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 82.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 56c | 69.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 67.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 41c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 53c | 60.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 48c | 50.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 45.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 48c | 45.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 68c | 43.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 40.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 38.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…fe6dbacked Yes | 64c | 37.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 45c | 36.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 49c | 34.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 75c | 33.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 36c | 29.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 45c | 25.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 45c | 25.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…5e40backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 58c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 54c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 56c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.