TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,196 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over56c3,783$2,121 inWon+$1,661.4443542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under44c3,017$1,318 inLost-$1,317.85,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under47c1,119$521 inLost-$521.342,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over54c927.27$500 inWon+$427.038,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under45c726.56$323 inLost-$323.323,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over57c616$351 inWon+$264.886,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under42c390.46$164 inLost-$163.993,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under44c295.24$130 inLost-$129.912,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28c1…ba5fbacked Under46c230.68$106 inLost-$106.111060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1155…2315backed Over77c210$162 inWon+$4822170.6%156 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Over54c185.19$100 inWon+$85.1926048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under44c149.99$66 inLost-$6668645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Under44c136.42$60 inLost-$59.9919435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under26c125.84$33 inLost-$32.863,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over54c124.63$67 inWon+$57.164,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd760…8e82backed Over54c118.6$64 inWon+$54.561266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under45c117.16$52 inLost-$52.183,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb1…8ec8backed Over54c111.48$60 inWon+$51.281650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Over65c100$65 inWon+$354468.2%30 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over65c76.92$50 inWon+$26.9265872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Over79c50.63$40 inWon+$10.6324358%141 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under21c50.63$11 inLost-$10.6340243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd531…470fbacked Over67c50$34 inWon+$16.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under45c37.99$17 inLost-$17.15,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f53…d57bbacked Under46c22.96$11 inLost-$10.566735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.8wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.